Stock prices on Bursa were mostly range-bound last week, although the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) managed to chalk up a decent gain of 8.3 points or 0.6% to end the week at 1,360.7.
Equity markets in the region have been tracking Wall Street's volatile performance over the past two weeks, when The Dow Jones Industrial Average started making triple-digit daily movements. After falling 410 points over three days in the previous week, the Dow Jones Industrials staged a strong comeback to recover about three-quarters of its earlier losses. The recent volatility is attributed to rising US bond yields, which stayed above the 5% level last week. However, investors took heart from the release of May's producer price index (PPI). Although the PPI reading of 0.9% was higher than expected, prices excluding food and energy costs rose just 0.2% after a flat showing in April. This suggests inflation remained under control. Despite fears of rising interest rates, Wall Street and global equity markets have been quite resilient this around, as investors appear to be embracing those expectations. There are several schools of thought to this. One is that the whole world is entering into a new inflationary phase, as evidenced by rising interest rates across much of the globe, and higher commodity prices across the board - from crude oil to agricultural products. An inflationary environment supports higher asset prices, and that includes stocks and property. Another argument is that rising interest rates are indicative of stronger economic growth ahead — and that translates into better corporate profits. Indeed, some argue that the US economy may have already escaped its worst period, such as the protracted housing slump (especially in the sub-prime market) and a slowing of GDP growth to just 0.6% in the first quarter of 2007. The local market has also been resilient due to positive domestic economic fundamentals and investor sentiment. The ability of the KLCI to stay above the 1,350-point level is also lending confidence, as that level had earlier proven to provide some strong psychological resistance. Portfolio review The portfolio's total value, including cash, rose by 2.7% during the week to RM553,713 — a new record high and surpassing the RM550,000 mark for the first time in history. This is a significant 3.5 times more than the RM160,000 we started with a little over four years ago. Total cumulative profits stood at RM393,713. Compared with our starting capital of RM160,000 on March 3, 2003, we have generated a hefty return of 246.1%. We continue to outperform the KLCI significantly, which is up by 110.4% during the same period. We had 10 gainers, two decliners and four unchanged stocks last week. Our gainers were very significant, with four stocks gaining over 9% each. Tanjung Offshore and its warrants surged 9% and 11.1%, respectively. They are now yielding us returns of 276% and 2,000%, respectively! The other major gainers were Muhibbah Engineering (up 10.8% for the week, and 742% from our cost) and DiGi (up 10.7% for the week, and 680% from our cost). Buying Tekala Corp Tekala is shaping up to be not just an undervalued plywood-producing timber company, but also an emerging oil & gas (O&G) play as well. The company has been benefiting from rising plywood prices and recently posted very strong results for financial year (FY) March 2007. Revenue rose 35% year-on-year (y-y) to RM161.2 million, while net profit surged from RM1.6 million to RM23.1 million, or 15.4 sen per share. This places its trailing P/E at just 8.4 times. There was a sharp improvement in four-quarter (4Q) FY07 profits, which augurs well for the current financial year if plywood prices hold up and its O&G division makes further inroads. 4QFY07 turnover almost doubled to RM45.8 million, with net profit at RM8.8 million, or 5.9 sen per share. Tekala has a 25% stake in Offshore Works, which provides services to the O&G industry via four main businesses: (1) construction & engineering services, (2) underwater & ROV services, (3) geo-hydrographic services and (4) ship management and chartering services. Its clients include Petronas Carigali, ExxonMobil, Sarawak Shell, Murphy Oil and Talisman. Tekala has a very strong balance sheet relative to its small market capitalisation of just RM196 million. It has a sizeable net cash of RM77.1 million, or a significant 50.7 sen per share. At RM1.29, Tekala's shares are trading just marginally above their NTA of RM1.21. Dividends are also generous, with a net dividend yield of 4.7%. Tax-exempt dividends totalled 6 sen for FY07, including a just proposed, and yet-to-be paid, final tax-exempt dividend of 4 sen. — InsiderAsia
Our model portfolio performed exceptionally well last week, beating the KLCI squarely and reaching a new record high. Our basket of 16 stocks surged by a significant 3.4% last week — one of its strongest weekly performances. This was nearly six times better than the KLCI's 0.6% gain.
We are buying 20,000 shares of Tekala Corp at Friday's closing price of RM1.29 for a total of RM25,800. This will raise our equity weighting from 81% to 86%. After this, we will still have surplus cash of RM78,618 for future investments.
The stake was acquired in September 2005, and it is now starting to contribute more positively to Tekala's bottom line, with associate net profit contribution of RM1.9 million in FY07.
Given the strong growth prospects — and rising valuations and investor appetite — for O&G-related stocks, Offshore Works could potentially look exciting for Tekala. This division also provides it with more buffered earnings as compared to other pure timber plays.